The Long Good Buy Quyển Sách Giúp Hiểu về Chu Kỳ, Xu Hướng và Khủng Hoảng Trên Thị Trường Tài Chính Chứng Khoán Trong 100 Năm Qua

 The Long Good Buy, Analysing Cycles in Markets. The Long Good Buy is an excellent introduction to understanding the cycles, trends and crises in financial markets over the past 100 years. Its purpose is to help investors assess risk and the probabilities of different outcomes.

This book eloquently blends the author’s vast experience with behavioural finance insights to document and understand financial booms and busts. The book should be a basic reading for any student of finance. A deeply insightful analysis of market cycles and their drivers that really does add to our practical understanding of what moves markets and longterm investment returns.

Đặt in sách tại HoaXanh: The Long Good Buy.

LESSONS FROM THE PAST: WHAT CYCLES LOOK LIKE AND WHAT DRIVES THEM

Riding the Cycle under Very Different Conditions 

Returns over the Long Run

Returns over Different Holding Periods

The Reward for Risk and the Equity Risk Premium

The Power of Dividends

Factors That Affect Returns for Investors

Market Timing

Valuations and Returns of Equities versus Bonds

The Impact of Diversification on the Cycle 45

The Equities Cycle: Identifying the Phases

The Four Phases of the Equity Cycle

Mini/High-Frequency Cycles within the Investment Cycle

The Interplay between the Cycle and Bond Yields

Asset Returns through the Cycle

Assets across the Economic Cycle

Assets across the Investment Cycle

The Impact of Changes in Bond Yields on Equities

The Point of the Cycle: Earlier is Better

The Speed of Adjustment: Slower Is Better

The Level of Yields: Lower is Better

Structural Shifts in the Value of Equities and Bonds

Investment Styles over the Cycle

Sectors and the Cycle

Cyclical versus Defensive Companies

Value versus Growth Companies

Value, Growth and Duration

THE NATURE AND CAUSES OF BULL AND BEAR MARKETS: WHAT TRIGGERS THEM AND WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

Bear Necessities: The Nature and Shape of

Bear Markets

Bear Markets Are Not All the Same

Cyclical Bear Markets

Event-Driven Bear Markets

Structural Bear Markets

Interest Rate Cuts Have Less Impact on Structural Bear Markets

Price Shocks: Deflation Is a Common Characteristic

Belief in a New Era/New Valuations

High Levels of Debt

Equity Market Leadership Becoming Narrow

High Volatility

The Relationship between Bear Markets and Corporate Profits

A Summary of Bear Market Characteristics

Defining the Financial Crisis: A Structural Bear Market with a Difference

Finding an Indicator to Flag Bear Market Risk

Typical Conditions Prior to Bear Markets

A Framework for Anticipating Bear Markets

Bull’s Eye: The Nature and Shape of Bull Markets

The ‘Super Cycle’ Secular Bull Market

1945–1968: Post-War Boom

1982–2000: The Start of Disinflation

2009 Onwards: The Start of QE and the ‘Great Moderation’

Cyclical Bull Markets

Variations in the Length of Bull Markets

Non-trending Bull Markets

Chapter 8: Blowing Bubbles: Signs of Excess

Spectacular Price Appreciation . . . and Collapse

Belief in a ‘New Era’ . . . This Time Is Different

Deregulation and Financial Innovation

Easy Credit 

New Valuation Approaches

Accounting Problems and Scandals

LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE: A FOCUS ON THE POST-FINANCIAL CRISIS ERA; WHAT HAS CHANGED AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR INVESTORS

How the Cycle Has Changed Post the Financial Crisis

Three Waves of the Financial Crisis

The Unusual Gap between Financial Markets and Economies

All Boats Were Lifted by the Liquidity Wave

The Unusual Drivers of the Return

Lower Inflation and Interest Rates

A Downtrend in Global Growth Expectations

The Fall in Unemployment and Rise in Employment

The Rise in Profit Margins

Falling Volatility of Macro Variables 

The Rising Influence of Technology

The Extraordinary Gap between Growth and Value

Lessons from Japan

Below Zero: The Impact of Ultra-Low Bond Yields

Zero Rates and Equity Valuations 

Zero Rates and Growth Expectations

Zero Rates: Backing Out Future Growth

Zero Rates and Demographics

Zero Rates and the Demand for Risk Assets

The Impact of Technology on the Cycle

The Ascent of Technology and Historical Parallels

The Printing Press and the First Great

Data Revolution

The Railway Revolution and Connected

Infrastructure

Electricity and Oil Fuelled the 20th Century 

Technology: Disruption and Adaption

Technology and Growth in the Cycle

How Long Can Stocks and Sectors Dominate?

How High Do Valuations Go?

How Big Can Companies Get Relative to the Market?

Technology and the Widening Gaps between Winners and Losers