Bullish Scenario (Direct Extension):
Immediate Target: New All-Time Highs are expected.
Confirmation of Continued Strength: A break above $115k would strongly suggest the current rally from the April low is a direct wave circle v, potentially reaching the $125k-$140k long-term target zone without a significant pullback first.
Upside Potential: If this direct move continues, the analysis even hints at the possibility of exceeding the $125k-$140k range due to the strength of the medium-term pattern.
Potential Top and Pullback (Black Count):
First Sign of a Top: A break below $102,370.
Stronger Confirmation of a Top: A break below $99.1k.
Wave (ii) Support Zone: $85k-$92k. This zone will be more precisely defined once a top is confirmed.
Implication of Pullback: A clear wave (ii) pullback would increase the likelihood of Bitcoin exceeding the $125k-$140k long-term target as part of an "outsized wave circle v."
Bearish Scenario (Purple Count):
Trigger: An immediate downturn and an impulsive break below $81.3k. This scenario is currently considered less likely.
Key Takeaways and Considerations:
Be Protective at New Highs: Given the potential completion of a larger 5-wave structure from the November 2022 lows, it's advised to be cautious and consider downside risks once new all-time highs are reached.
Monitor Key Levels: Pay close attention to the $102,370 and $99.1k levels for early signs of a potential top.
Wave (ii) Pullback Significance: A clear pullback to the $85k-$92k zone (if it occurs) could set the stage for a more significant move beyond the initial long-term targets.
In summary, the analysis points towards new all-time highs for Bitcoin as the primary expectation. However, it also highlights crucial levels to watch for potential tops and pullbacks, as well as the importance of being mindful of larger degree trend completion once new highs are achieved.